There has been much talk recently about China and how far it has come. Many have even taken to trying to paint China as a geopolitical threat to the United States. I feel this is a complete mis characterization of the current events unfolding.
1) China is a country of 1.3 billion people. A potential armed forces of over half a billion people. This, to many people, is scary – and one of the main reasons people fear China. Of course, no one ever takes the next logical step and asks themselves: How would China get half a billion people over to the United States? And guess what? There is absolutely no possible way this could be accomplished. The United States is completely immune to a geopolitical Chinese threat.
2) The United States currently spends about half of the entire world’s annual military budget. In fact, we outspend China 10 to 1 in military spending – every year. We have the most advanced military the world has ever seen, and we spend 10 times our closest rival (Which is China) to keep it that way. China is not a military threat to the United States.
3) China pays for our debt. This meme is always bandied about, as if one day China will just sell all its treasuries and sink the United States. If China actually did this, it would also greatly hurt Japan and Europe (2 of its biggest export partners) as well as the United States. Not only that, but by selling the treasuries at the low price in order to clear all the orders – China would hurt itself almost as much as the United States. Not to mention, once they stop funding our debt, we stop buying their goods (Because of the eventual cut in government spending and raise in taxes)
4) China is growing at 10% a year – therefore in about 20 years they should equal the United States GDP. This, of course, assumes that China can keep up their astounding growth (which has currently lasted less than a decade) for another 2 decades. This is pretty much impossible. China has actually shown great signs of weakness recently, from inflation, and falling GDP, to a slumping stock market. Of course, this is also really not the point, since China getting richer actually means we can get richer – it is not some kind of zero-sum game where any gain in China’s part is a loss on ours. China will not be an economic threat to the United States for the foreseeable future.
5) Let’s assume China actually overtakes America economically in half a century. Let’s also assume they started to match our military spending in a few years and then overtook us from then until 2060. Let’s also assume they landed their half a billion strong army in the United States. Now what? There are 12 guns for every single American citizen in the United States. So, if China somehow breaks with their culture (They are the longest running country to exist and their expansionism has pretty much included small territories around them and Tibet) and invaded the United States – they can enjoy the bloodiest guerrilla war the world has ever seen.
Good luck China!
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Love your analysis. may I cite you on my blog?
Thanks.
I agree with most of the points you’ve made, and would like to add another which I believe people spew out ugly as vomit on a regular basis: education. The basic reasoning is, like stated above, China has 1.3 billion heads, and that population will/is brewing an immense force of skilled and intellectual labor. To assume that the all the universities in China, and India for that matter compare to the quality of most institutions in the West comes as a result of ignorance, at least to me. Much of those populations don’t have the resources to attend and attain a degree from a university. We don’t have anywhere near their numbers and the U.S. cannot instill a quality education for all of our population. Although it is an issue, it isn’t world domination ish shit.
Reports come in that they have so many engineering graduates, many of those could be perusing fields for infrastructure support as I believe both India and China need their infrastructure updated to the 21st century – outside of the megalopolises. Another interesting point in Chinese education is that there are many that move to America and work for companies in the U.S. This may be an issue for competition between foreign-born and born U.S. citizens but this is more an individual issue than one of state competition.
Amount of patents applied for and submitted articles for peer-reviewed journal also has a staggering Western slant: the U.S. and EU come in first and second in these categories. Quite frankly the amount of data and intellectual resources are being produced in these states. The U.S. even beats the EU in some catagories, which mind you is a collection of states where the U.S. is a state in its own. – this last paragraph I have taken from memory from my International Relations class from the Spring semester of 08 which is relevant here.
I enjoyed your post, Mike.
As to Donato — thanks for posting a comment. Where did you take a class in International Relations? Just curious
Feel free to cite anything you like. Thanks for checking out Hiptics.
China spent their extra money on the olympics instead of the military. Thank you chinese leaders.
I took it at Southern Connecticut State University in New Haven. I will be going to UConn @ Storrs when this fall semester starts but the IR course and the Logic course there had extremely good professors (at least I did) What aggravates me is the sensationalism of China. Like any state they have big hurdles to overcome, you’re third point illustrates something that keeps the U.S. and Chinese economies linked, an economic interdependence. This symbiotic relationship helps each party in a way and I don’t see it dissolving any time soon..
but what about the al queda queen harbored in GA planning on using China as a tool against Democracy and the Eagle?